July 29, 2017 | Working Paper
  • Headline: The Revenue Potential of a Financial Transaction Tax
  • Intro Text: This paper by Robert Pollin, James Heintz, and Thomas Herndon estimates the revenue potential of a financial transaction tax (FTT) for U.S. financial markets, specifically the Inclusive Prosperity Act now before Congress.  It considers three sets of evidence: the levels of transaction costs in U.S. financial markets; the range of potential trading elasticities; and the current level of market trading. The paper finds that net revenue potential is around $220 billion per year, equaling approximately 1.2 percent of current U.S. GDP. The paper also considers the impact of the tax on broader macroeconomic conditions. This is a revised draft of a 2016 Working Paper.
  • Type of publication: Working Paper
  • Research or In The Media: Research
  • Research Area: Finance, Jobs & Macroeconomics
  • Publication Date: 2017-07-29
  • Authors:
    • Add Authors: Robert Pollin
    • Add Authors: James Heintz
    • Add Authors: Thomas Herndon
  • Show in Front Page Modules: Yes
  • JEL Codes: G12
The Revenue Potential of a Financial Transaction Tax for U.S. Financial Markets

Abstract

This paper estimates the revenue potential of a financial transaction tax (FTT) for U.S. financial markets. We focus on analyzing the revenue potential of the Inclusive Prosperity Act that was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012 and the U.S. Senate in 2015. The tax rates stipulated in this Act include 0.5 percent (50 basis points) for all stock transactions; 0.1 percent (10 basis points) for all bond transactions; and 0.005 percent (0.5 basis points) on the notional value of all derivative trades. We examine three sets of evidence to generate potential revenue estimates: 1) the levels of transaction costs in U.S. financial markets over time and within the range of financial market segments; 2) the extent of trading elasticities under various trading conditions; and 3) the current level of trading activity in U.S. financial markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that a US FTT operating at the tax rates stated above would generate about $250 billion per year, assuming that a combination of trading volume decline and tax avoidance generates the equivalent of a 50 percent fall in trading revenue. We then consider additional factors whose impact will reduce the net revenue generated by the Act. Adding up these various considerations, we conclude conservatively that the net revenue potential of this U.S. FTT is around $220 billion per year, which equals approximately 1.2 percent of current U.S. GDP. This revenue estimate as a share of GDP is consistent with experiences in other countries that have operated with FTTs with similar tax rates and other design features. It is also consistent with other projections based on tax rates that are comparable to those we are examining. In addition, we examine the 18-fold increase, between the 1970s and the present, in the ratio of stock market trading relative to productive investment spending by U.S. nonfinancial corporations. This sharp rise in stock market trading as a share of productive investments has not been associated with any growth in productive investments themselves. Working from this evidence, we conclude that a U.S. FTT, which should bring a fall in stock market trading relative to productive investment spending, should not, on balance, produce significant negative effects on productive investments.

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