A Short-Run Distributional Analysis of a Carbon Tax in the United States

Abstract

This paper examines the distributional impacts of a $50 tax per ton of CO_². Using Input-Output tables we calculate the carbon intensity of goods to estimate households’ carbon footprints. Findings indicate the tax is regressive. Using the revenue to reduce taxes on labor leaves 60 percent of people worse off, while rebating the revenue in equal dividends increases welfare for 55 percent of individuals, including 84 percent in the bottom half of the distribution. Many economists have dismissed dividends on efficiency grounds, but we show that potential macroeconomic benefits of tax cuts are insufficient to protect the poor.